553 AXNT20 KNHC 282324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N35W and to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-10N between 30W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails just north of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting E light to gentle winds over most of the Gulf and SE gentle to moderate return flow over the W Gulf. Seas are less than 8 ft across the Gulf. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across the region. Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu, from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri, and stall from N Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat. Another cold front will move off the coast of Texas early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage, near Jamaica, and southwestward to near Costa Rica. South of 17N, the stationary front is dissipating. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front, with NE fresh breeze west of the front and E gentle breeze to the east. Seas are less than 8 ft across the Caribbean. Strong high pressure will build north of the area this week, strengthening winds across the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from 32N60W to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 NM of the front north of 27N, while scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front south of 27N. A weak 1012 mb low is centered at 23N65W with a trough extending southward to 18N65W. Winds west of the front are NE moderate to fresh breeze, while the are SE moderate to fresh breeze east of the front north of 25N. Elsewhere a 1012 mb low is centered at 29N30W with a trough extending eastward to 28N16W. Another trough extends from 31N38W to 26N36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 28N between 25W and 40W. The Bermuda-Azores High is centered near 48N, well north of our waters. Strong high pressure will build across the forecast waters this week. This will support fresh to strong winds through the week. A cold front will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near Puerto Rico Fri night. Another cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Sat. $$ Landsea