000 AXNT20 KNHC 281744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W to 05N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N35W and to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 01N-11N between 21W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin supporting gentle to moderate return flow over the western Gulf. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across the region. Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong Mon night ahead of the next strong cold front that is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas Wed night. This front will reach from Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Thu, and from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan peninsula Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Patches of broken low clouds with isolated showers are along and within 60 nm northwest of a dissipating stationary front that extends from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica to northern Costa Rica are affecting the southwestern Caribbean south of 20N and west of 80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail west of the front with seas in the range of 3-6 ft. A surface trough east of the stationary front extends from 25N65W to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate east winds are present over the remainder of the basin. Winds over the western Caribbean waters will start strengthening to fresh to strong speeds Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Isolated showers over the southwestern Caribbean will continue through Wed as the stationary front dissipates. Gentle to moderate winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week and change little through the rest of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 32N60W to 25N66W and to the Windward Passage. A trough is east of the front extending along a position from 25N65W to the east tip of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of the front N of 23N between 57W and 66W, including the northern part of the trough. An ASCAT pass from 1222Z this morning revealed an area of fresh to strong winds within the aforementioned area of shower and thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT pass from 1404Z this morning highlighted fresh to strong northeast winds west of the front to 73W including the southeastern Bahamas and also south of 27N between 73W-77W including the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are occurring west of 77W. Otherwise, a surface trough associated with a 1016 mb low is over the north-central Atlantic waters near 28N37W. To its east, a west to east oriented surface trough extends from 29N29W to the Canary Islands near 28N15W. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection between the two troughs north of 30N. The stationary front in the western Atlantic will weaken to a surface trough this afternoon. Strong high pressure behind the front is supporting fresh to strong winds. These winds are forecast to continue through the rest of the week. A cold front will push south of 30N on Tue night and dissipate near Puerto Rico Fri night. Another cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Sat. $$ Mora/Aguirre