000 AXNT20 KNHC 281105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 09N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02N-10N between 20W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin supporting gentle to moderate return flow. Deep layered dry air keeps fair weather across the region. Return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong Mon night ahead of the next strong cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas Wed night. The front will reach from Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Thu with possible gale force winds developing over Veracruz adjacent waters. Showers are forecast across the basin as the front traverses the basin through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail west of a stationary front that extends from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica to northern Costa Rica. Isolated showers associated with the front affecting the SW Caribbean will prevail through Wed as th front dissipates on Mon and it remnants then move westward. Tightening of the pressure gradient between the front remnants and strong high pressure that will form N of the area will support fresh to strong winds over central and eastern Cuba adjacent waters as well as in the Windward Passage Mon evening through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong by mid-week and prevail through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extending from 31N60W to the Windward Passage will gradually weaken into a remnant surface trough by Mon afternoon. With strong high pressure building behind the front, moderate to fresh NE winds W of the frontal boundary will increase to fresh to strong Mon evening and prevail through the remaining forecast period. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front N of 23N between 55W and 66W. This convective activity will prevail over the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico through Tue early evening. Otherwise, a 1016 mb low is over the north-central Atlc waters with no shower activity. To the east, a west to east surface trough reaches the Canary Islands and support some showers in that region. A cold front will push south over the SW N Atlc waters on Tue nigth and dissipate near Puerto Rico Fri night. A second cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida on Sat. $$ Ramos