000
AXNT20 KNHC 280441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
09N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 07N35W to 
the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 27W-40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1030 mb high pressure off Massachusetts near 42N68W. There is no
significant convection noted across the basin. Light to gentle NE
winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with moderate SE winds off 
the south Texas/northern Mexican coast. Light to gentle E to SE 
winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. 

Surface ridging prevails across the basin supporting
gentle to moderate return flow. Fresh to locally strong E to SE 
winds are expected across the basin Tue ahead of the next cold 
front forecast to reach the NW Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are 
possible over the southwest waters in the vicinity of the front
on Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward passage to eastern
Jamaica to the coast of northern Costa Rica. Scattered showers
are within 180 nm of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
are off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 09N-15N and E
of 81W. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted in the NW Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds are noted across the central and eastern
Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin, with
upwards of 7 ft off the NE Nicaragua coast. 

The stationary front will dissipate on Mon, however tightening
of the pressure gradient between the front remnants and strong
high pressure building N of the area will support fresh to 
strong winds over central and eastern Cuba adjacent waters as
well as in the Windward Passage Mon night through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will 
increase to fresh to strong by mid-week and prevail through 
the forecast period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the western Atlantic from 31N61W to 
the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 240 nm E of the front N of 23N. Fresh to strong N 
winds are within 180 nm NW of the front. Seas 3 to 6 ft are 
noted off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas. Seas 8 to 10 ft 
are near the stationary front. A surface trough is over the 
central Atlantic from 31N38W to 25N39W. Scattered showers are 
within 90 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary 
Islands near 28N21W. Scattered showers are over the western 
Canary Islands.
 
The western Atlantic stationary front will gradually weaken into
a remnant surface trough by Mon afternoon. The next frontal 
boundary will push south of 30N on Tue, then high pressure will
build across the region on Wed. A second cold front is expected 
to push across the basin by the end of the week, with strong to
near-gale winds affecting the regional waters north of 26N and 
west of 75W on Fri.

$$
Formosa