000
AXNT20 KNHC 272331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 07N36W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ from 04N-09N between 28W-42W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1026 mb high pressure over southern Georgia. There is no
significant convection noted across the basin. Light to gentle NE
winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with moderate SE winds off 
the south Texas/northern Mexican coast. Light to gentle E to SE 
winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. 

Southerly return flow will continue across the area. Fresh to 
locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the basin Tue 
ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf on 
Wed. Gale force winds are possible over the southwest waters in 
the vicinity of the front on Thu across the western half of the 
basin as the front moves through. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward passage to eastern
Jamaica to the coast of northern Costa Rica. Scattered showers
are within 100 nm of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
are off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 09N-15N and E
of 81W. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted in the NW Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds are noted across the central and eastern
Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin, with
upwards of 7 ft off the NE Nicaragua coast. 

The stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by 
Mon. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the vicinity of the 
boundary and will continue after the front dissipates due to a 
pressure gradient tightening. Gentle to moderate winds in the 
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong by
mid-week and prevail through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging from the 1026 mb high pressure in southern
Georgia extends off the coast of Florida in the western 
Atlantic. Farther east, a stationary front stretches from 30N62W
to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and east of the front, N of 25N between
57W-58W. Fresh to strong N winds are within 180 nm NW of the
front. Seas 3 to 6 ft are noted off the coast of Florida and the
Bahamas. Seas 8 to 10 ft are near the stationary front. 

In the central Atlantic, a trough is noted from 29N42W to 26N36W
with showers within 100 nm of it. Another trough is noted east of
the Lesser Antilles, from 14N55W to 09N57W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. A 1014 mb low is
located east of the Canary Islands near 29N24W. A trough extends
along the low from 30N28W to 26N20W. Showers are north of the low
from 31N-32N between 21W-27W with fresh to strong winds near the
low along 30N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
central and eastern Atlantic. Seas range 7 to 10 ft. 

$$
AReinhart