000 AXNT20 KNHC 271700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09.5N14W to 08N16W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 07.5N34W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 16W-29W, from 09.5N-13N between 29W-34W, and from 05N-07.5N between 34W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico from a 1026 mb high pressure over southern Georgia. Shallow cumulus and possible isolated showers are noted over the southern and southwestern portion of the basin, including east of a surface trough, which extends from 19N95W to 23N98W. Gentle anticyclonic wind flow is present over much of the basin, with moderate NE winds over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the basin Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by Wed night. Gale force NW to N winds are possible over the western Gulf of Mexico behind the front on Thu off of Mexico and southern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica to the coast of southern Nicaragua. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front from 10N-16N between 79W-84W. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the front farther northeast, from Jamaica to the Windward Passage. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh northerly winds to the NW of the front across most of the western Caribbean. Strong N winds are seen from 11.5N-15N between the front and the coast of Nicaragua. A mid-level ridge is supporting dry air and stable conditions over the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. The front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong on Mon night as the gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the remnants of the front tighten. E to SE fresh to strong winds in this region will prevail through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Wed evening and prevail through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high pressure over southern Georgia extends a surface ridge ENE from the coast of NE Florida and Georgia. A cold front extends from 32N61.5W to 29N64W, then continues as a stationary front to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds within 180 nm NW of the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm SE of the front, north of 27N and east of 63W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the front, including near the southeast Bahamas. Farther east, a mid to upper-level low is near 33N39W. A surface trough is underneath it from 37N41W to 31N38W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 28N40W to 25N36W. Scattered moderate showers are north of 24N between 31W-43W. In the NE Atlantic, a 1013 mb surface low near 28N22W is along a surface trough extending from 25N20W to the low to 30N26W. Isolated showers are near the low and trough. Strong E winds to the north of this low and trough are confined to areas north of 30N between 18W-27W. For the forecast west of 65W: The stationary front will gradually weaken into a remnant surface trough on Monday. The next frontal boundary will push south of 30N on Tue. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected across much of the western Atlantic late Tue through Wed. Winds west of 75W will become strong from the SE on Thu ahead of the next strong cold front, which is expected to push across the western Atlantic on Fri. Strong to near-gale winds are expected north of 26N and west of 75W on Fri. $$ Hagen