000
AXNT20 KNHC 271104
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 
09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 07N35W to the
coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 12N between 16W and 35W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered dry air and a surface ridge continue to provide
stable weather conditions across the basin. Moderate NE winds are
in the far SE gulf while SE wind of the same magnitude is over the
NW forecast waters. Light to gentle return flow is elsewhere with
seas to 5 ft.  

Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the 
basin Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the NW 
Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are possible over the western half 
of the basin Thu as the front moves through.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to western Jamaica 
to Nicaragua with moderate to fresh northerly winds and building 
seas west of the boundary. Only isolated showers are noted over
the offshore waters of Nicaragua ahead of the front. Dry and
stable air at the middle and lower levels support stable
conditions elsewhere. 

The front will gradually weaken and disspate by Mon, however winds
behind the front will increase to fresh to strong on Mon night as
the gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the 
remnants of the front tighten. E to SE fresh to strong winds in 
this region will prevail through Thu ahead of the next cold front.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds in the central and eastern 
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Wed evening and prevail
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 28N65W to eastern Cuba. There is
no significant convection associated with this frontal boundary,
however moderate to fresh northerlies are affecting the region
just to the E of the Bahamas to 65W. In the far NE Atlc, there is
a 1012 mb low just to the west of the Canary Islands. However,
there is no significant shower activity associated with it.
Surface high pressure dominates the remainder central Atlc.  

The stationary front will gradually weaken into a remnant surface
trough Sun night into Mon. The next frontal boundary will push 
south of 30N on Tue, then high pressure will build across the 
region on Wed. A strong cold front is expected to push across the 
basin on Fri, with strong to near-gale winds expected north of 
26N and west of 75W on Fri. 

$$
Ramos