000
AXNT20 KNHC 271057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 
09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 07N35W to the
coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 12N between 16W and 35W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered dry air and a surface ridge continue to provide
stable weather conditions across the basin. Moderate NE winds are
in the far SE gulf while SE wind of the same magnitude is over the
NW forecast waters. Light to gentle return flow is elsewhere with
seas to 5 ft.  

Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the 
basin Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the NW 
Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are possible over the western half 
of the basin Thu as the front moves through.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to western Jamaica 
to Nicaragua with moderate to fresh northerly winds and building 
seas west of the boundary. Only isolated showers are noted over
the offshore waters of Nicaragua ahead of the front. Dry and
stable air at the middle and lower levels support stable
conditions elsewhere. 

The front will gradually weaken and disspate by Mon, however winds
behind the front will increase to fresh to strong on Mon night as
the gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the 
remnants of the front tighten. E to SE fresh to strong winds in 
this region will prevail through Thu ahead of the next cold front.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds in the central and eastern 
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Wed evening and prevail
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 24N69W. A 
stationary front continues to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 270 nm E of the front N of 25N.
Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm west of the front, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of the front.
A 1012 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 29N22W. Strong 
winds are mainly north of 30N and east of 40W. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds generally prevail. NE swell dominates
the forecast waters E of 65W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range.

Over the W Atlantic, the northern portion of the front will 
become stationary within the next 36 hours while weakening. 
The next frontal boundary will push south of 30N on Tue, then
high pressure will build across the region on Wed. A strong 
cold front is expected to push across the basin on Fri, with 
strong to near- gale winds expected north of 26N and west of
75W on Fri. 

$$
Ramos