496 
AXNT20 KNHC 270447
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sun Dec 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 08N35W to 
the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is along the ITCZ from 02N-11N between 20W-30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 
1024 mb high over the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W.  Light to 
gentle winds are noted over the northern Gulf, with gentle to 
moderate winds over the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range over the SE half of the Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the NW
half of the Gulf. 

Southerly return flow will continue across the area. SE to S 
winds will strengthen in the Gulf Tue and Wed. A cold front 
will reach the NW Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are possible 
over the southwest waters in the vicinity of the front on 
Thu across the western half of the basin as the front moves
through. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from E Cuba to NE Nicaragua. Fresh 
to strong winds are within 180 nm west of the front. Gentle 
to moderate winds prevail east of the front. Seas of 8-11 ft
are noted west of the front, with 4-6 ft seas over the remainder
of the Caribbean. 

The stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate Mon.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and building seas in the NW 
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong on Mon night as the
gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the
remnants of the front tighten. Mainly moderate trade winds will 
prevail across the remainder of the area through Thu.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 24N69W. A 
stationary front continues to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 270 nm E of the front N of 25N.
Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm west of the front, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of the front.
A 1012 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 29N22W. Strong 
winds are mainly north of 30N and east of 40W. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds generally prevail. NE swell dominates
the forecast waters E of 65W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range.

Over the W Atlantic, the northern portion of the front will 
become stationary within the next 36 hours while weakening. 
The next frontal boundary will push south of 30N on Tue, then
high pressure will build across the region on Wed. A strong 
cold front is expected to push across the basin on Fri, with 
strong to near- gale winds expected north of 26N and west of
75W on Fri. 

$$
Formosa