000
AXNT20 KNHC 262200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to the coast of
Brazil near 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 16W and 30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 
1026 mb high over the southeastern U.S. A trough is located over
the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 18.5N94W. Light to gentle winds are
noted over the northern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over
the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the SE half
of the Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the NW half of the Gulf. 

Southerly return flow will continue across the area western Gulf.
SE to S winds will strengthen in the Gulf Tue and Wed. A cold 
front will reach the NW Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are 
possible over the southwest waters in the vicinity of the front 
on Thu across the western half of the basin in the wake of the 
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from E Cuba near the Honduras/Nicaragua 
border. Fresh to strong winds are within 180 nm west of the 
front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front. Seas 
of 8-11 ft are noted west of the front, with 4-6 ft seas over the
remainder of the Caribbean. 

The cold front will weaken through Mon, with winds and seas
decreasing west of the front. Moderate trade winds will prevail 
across the remainder of the area through Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N64W to E Cuba. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm E
of the front N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm
west of the front, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west
of the front. Light to gentle winds are noted east of the front.
Seas of 8-12 ft prevail over the open waters west of the front to
near 77W, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Seas in
the 6-8 ft range are east of the front. 

For the forecast, the northern portion of the front will become 
stationary within the next 48 hours while weakening. The next 
frontal boundary will push south of 30N on Tue, then high 
pressure will build across the region on Wed. A strong cold front
is expected to push across the basin on Fri, with strong to 
near-gale winds expected north of 26N and west of 75W on Fri. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1010 mb low is located near 28N21W. 
Strong winds are mainly north of 30N and east of 40W. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds generally prevail. NE swell dominates
the forecast waters E of 65W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. 

$$
AL