000 AXNT20 KNHC 262043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 12W to 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging spans across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1026 mb high in the southeastern U.S. A trough is located in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N98W to 19N96W. Moderate northerly winds are in the eastern Gulf and light to gentle easterly winds are in the western Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high pressure centered over southeastern CONUS. Southerly return flow will continue across the area. SE to S winds will strengthen in the Gulf Tue and Wed. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Wed. Gale force winds are possible over the southwest waters in the vicinity of the front on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and across the NW Caribbean from 20N76W to the coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Showers are seen in the vicinity of the front. Showers are also noted in the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front with moderate to fresh winds north of Colombia. Light to gentle trades are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas range 9 to 11 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. The stationary front will weaken through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the NW Caribbean today. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the area through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to the southern Bahamas near 22N72W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 24N69W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 62W to 68W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted behind the front. Seas are up to 12 ft. In the central Atlantic, a dying stationary front is from 29N44W to 23N56W with scattered showers along it from 24N to 30N between 43W to 53W. A surface trough is to the east of the dying front from 31N43W to 26N40W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the central Atlantic with seas 8-10 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is located east of the Canary Islands near 28N21W. A trough extends west of the low to 28N27W and south of the low to 19N29W. Light to gentle winds are near the low with strong winds N of 31N. The northern portion of the cold front will become stationary within the next 48 hours while weakening. The next frontal boundary will push south of 30N on Tue, then high pressure will build across the region on Wed. A strong cold front is expected to push across the basin on Fri, with strong to near-gale winds expected north of 29N. $$ AReinhart