000 AXNT20 KNHC 261031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 14W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico, and surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire basin. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 high pressure center in Mississippi to the isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. The area of high pressure will shift northeastward through Sunday night. Southerly return flow is expected to increase this weekend across the basin. SE to S winds will strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the southern Bahamas across eastern Cuba and western Jamaica to northern coast of Honduras near 15N84W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and embedded isolated showers are north of the cold front. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate showers are associated with monsoon trough. Isolated trade wind showers are elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds moving through the area. The cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua later today, then stall and weaken Sunday through Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the NW Caribbean today. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the area through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N69W across the southern Bahamas to the eastern tip of Cuba near 21N75W. Strong W to NW winds are observed west of the front, and fresh to strong southerly winds area north of 28N ahead of the front. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring N of 25N within 30 nm west of the front, and 150 nm east of the front. A stationary front passes from 31N41W to 26N46W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front from 23N to 27N between 45W and 57W. A surface trough is along 40W from 23N to 30N. Isolated showers are within 60 nm on either side of the trough axis. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 27N21W, about 390 nm to the west of northern Morocco. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated showers, are from 20N to 23N east of 30W. The cold front will reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba later today, then stall and weaken Sunday through Monday. A cold front will push south of 30N Tuesday night, and high pressure will build across the region on Wednesday. $$ Mundell