000 AXNT20 KNHC 260554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 07N30W, 05N40W, to the coast of Brazil near 04N41W just to the east of French Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 15W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 03N to 10N between 10W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 NW Louisiana high pressure center, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is in the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High pressure, centered in the western Gulf of Mexico near NE Mexico, will shift northeastward through Sunday night. Expect southerly return flow to be increasing this weekend across the basin, gradually. SE to S winds will strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Venezuela and Colombia and Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean beyond 10N93W. Upper level W and NW wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence, span the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through the Bahamas from 22N to 23N between 74W and 75W, across SE Cuba, to Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the northwest of the cold front. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the coastal waters of Central America, from 12N to the cold front from 81W westward. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 70W westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 12N northward from 70W westward. The comparatively most notable precipitation is between Hispaniola and South America. A cold front, that is extending from eastern Cuba to Honduras, will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Sunday and Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the NW Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the area through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N70W, to the Bahamas from 22N to 23N between 74W and 75W, across SE Cuba, to Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the cold front from 29N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 25N to 29N. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from the Bahamas to 25N. A stationary front passes through 32N39W to 30N40W, to 26N46W 24N50W, and 24N56W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the stationary front between 46W and 56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N to 26N between 53W and 60W. A surface trough is along 38W/40W from 20N to 31N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N21W, about 390 nm to the west of northern Morocco. A surface trough curves away from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 27N18W 22N20W 20N30W 20N32W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough, and from 25N northward from 30W eastward. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front, that is extending from 31N71W to eastern Cuba, will reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba, on Saturday, then stall and weaken, from Sunday through Monday. A cold front will push south of 30N on Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the region on Wednesday. $$ mt/dm