000 AXNT20 KNHC 252200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Minimal gale force W to NW winds continue behind a cold front moving across the SW N Atlc waters. The gales are mainly north of 27N and west of 76W. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by early this evening. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 07N32W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 04N-10N between 21W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, centered off a 1029 mb high pressure over NE Mexico near 25N98W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters E of 88W, with moderate to fresh winds west of 88W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range generally SE of a line from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail NW of that line. Moderate to strong NW winds over the NE Gulf will quickly diminish and conditions across the Gulf will be quiescent from Sat through Mon. SE to S winds ahead of a new cold front will become moderate to strong over the Gulf on Tue and Wed. This cold front should emerge off of the Texas coast on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to central Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range W of the front, 5-7 ft over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. The front will reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua Sat afternoon, stall on Sun, and weaken by Mon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are expected across the NW Caribbean today and Sat before diminishing Sat night. Moderate N swell impacting the tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly subside by Sun. A strengthening Bermuda High will enhance NE winds south of central Cuba and in the Windward Passage Mon night through Tue night. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: A strong cold front extends from 32N72W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 150 nm east of the front and 90 nm west of the front, mainly north of 27N. Gale force winds continue west of the front, close to northern Florida. See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. Strong NW to N winds are through the Bahamas and in the Florida Straits. To the east of the front, near gale force S winds are occurring in the convection north of 27N. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will reach from 31N65W to E Cuba Sat afternoon, becoming stationary on Sun, and weakening on Mon. A building Bermuda High late Mon through at least Wed night will increase E to NE winds with building seas. Currently over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N39W to 24N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 21N-26N between 53W-61W. Strong E winds are occurring over the waters north the front to 30N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the front. Seas are 8-11 ft N of 20N, and 7-9 ft S of 20N. Farther east, in the NE Atlantic, a 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N22W. A surface trough extends from the low to 20N30W to 22N36W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the vicinity of the low and trough, with seas of 8-12 ft. $$ AL