000 AXNT20 KNHC 251732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Gale force W to NW winds up to 35 kt and seas up to 12 ft are occurring east of northern and central Florida behind a cold front, according to recent buoy observations and a recent ASCAT pass. The gales are mainly north of 27N and west of 77W. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by mid-afternoon today. Expect seas of 10 to 13 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 07N33W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 02N-10N between 38W and the west coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure is centered over NE Mexico near 25N99W, in the wake of the strong cold front, which exited the Gulf of Mexico last night and is now over the Caribbean Sea. An ASCAT pass from 25/1500 UTC shows strong to near gale force NW winds over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds are over much of the remainder of the Gulf. However, gentle winds are found in the west-central Gulf, close to the center of the surface high pressure over NE Mexico. Moderate to strong N to NW winds across the E Gulf will quickly diminish through this evening as the high pressure over NE Mexico spreads eastward over the Gulf. Conditions across the Gulf will be quiescent from Sat through Mon. SE to S winds ahead of the next cold front will become moderate to strong on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N80W to 19N84W to western Honduras near 15N88W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 180 nm SE of and 60 nm NW of the front. Strong N winds are NW of the front. Elsewhere, mid to upper-level ridging is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air in place. However, some showers are seen south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, as well as in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, south of 10.5N, between 77W-81W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the NE Caribbean as well as in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia and Panama. Mainly moderate trades are seen elsewhere east of the cold front. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua Sat afternoon, stall on Sun, and weaken by Mon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are expected across the NW Caribbean today and Sat before weakening on Sat night. Quiescent conditions are expected across the Caribbean waters Mon and Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: A strong cold front extends from 32N74W to Nassau Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 150 nm east of the front and 90 nm west of the front, mainly north of 27N. Gale force winds are well west of the front, closer to northern and central Florida. See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. Strong NW to N winds are through the Bahamas and in the Florida Straits. To the east of the front, near gale force S winds are occurring in the convection north of 27N. For the forecast west of 65W, winds between the cold front and Florida will relax some to below gale force this afternoon. The front will reach from 31N65W to E Cuba Sat afternoon, becoming stationary on Sun, and weakening on Mon. A building Bermuda high late Mon through at least Tue night will increase E to NE winds with building seas. Currently over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N39W to 28N44W to 25N53W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N53W to 25N62W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 21N-26N between 53W-63W. Strong E winds are occurring over the entire area from the front to 30N between 42W-62W. Strong SE winds are north of 27N and west of 62W. An altimeter pass from 25/0722 UTC indicated wave heights of 11 to 13 ft from 24N-32N between 50W-53W. In the NE Atlantic, a 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N22W. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N22W to 21N35W to 28N37W to 32N37W. Fresh to strong east winds are from 30N-32N between 13W-33W, associated with the gradient to the north of the low pressure. Scattered showers associated with the trough are seen north of 29N between 34W-38W. Scattered showers associated with the low are north of 30N and east of 27W. An altimeter pass from 25/0542 UTC indicated wave heights of 12 to 14 ft in the area from 26N-32N between 25W-28W. $$ Hagen