413 AXNT20 KNHC 251045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A strong cold front extends from 31N77W to southern Florida. Strong southerly winds to gale-force are occurring north of 30N east of northern Florida. Expect S-to-SW 30 to 35 kt winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 to 15 feet, N of 29N W of 75W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 03N to 09N between 13W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is exiting the basin. In its wake, strong high pressure over NE Mexico is supporting 20 to 30 kt northerly winds across the entire basin. Sea heights are starting to subside after reaching a maximum of 20 ft at two different buoys yesterday, and are estimated at 8 to 16 ft, with the highest seas in the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. The region is nearly devoid of precipitation under a dominant high pressure ridge. A broad area of large seas, in excess of 10 ft, will remain across the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure building behind the front will prevail across the region through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Venezuela into the eastern Pacific Ocean beyond 07N92W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and dry air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea. A strong cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel from the western tip of Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula near 19N88W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and isolated embedded showers, are within 90 nm either side of the cold front. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean, producing isolated shower activity along the boundary. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low-level clouds moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 13N northward from 70W westward, most notably off the coasts of NE Honduras and E Nicaragua. The cold front will extend from central Cuba to Honduras today, from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Saturday, then stall and weaken on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across the western Caribbean today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends from 31N77W to southern Florida. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, mainly in showers, is occurring within 120 nm of the front. Seas are rapidly building in the western Atlantic, estimated at 9 to 15 ft, in association with the front. A cold front in the central Atlantic passes through 32N40W to 28N44W to 25N60W. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 22N to 26N between 55W and 63W. A surface trough is along 53W from 16N to 25N. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated embedded showers are within 120 to 150 nm of the trough. A 1008 mb low pressure center is centered near 26N23W, about 480 nm west of Morocco. A surface trough curves away from the low to the southwest, to 21N34W. Widely scattered moderate showers are in the vicinity of the low center. The front will extend from 31N73W to central Cuba today, slow and weaken from 31N64W to eastern Cuba on Saturday, then stationary from 31N60W to eastern Cuba on Sunday. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front through Saturday. $$ Mundell