000 AXNT20 KNHC 250541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 28N83W 21N89W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 20 feet, S of 22N. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is near 31N81W. The rest of this cold front extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, N of 29N W of 75W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 06N30W, 02N40W, and 02N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 45W eastward, and from 05N to 13N between 37W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the northeastern corner of Florida, to the Florida west coast near 28N83W, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the NE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds and high seas are associated with the cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are within 150 nm on either side of the cold front. Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are in the areas of clouds, from 25N northward. A surface ridge extends from the Far West Texas near 31N106W, to a 1032 mb high pressure center that is in Mexico near 28N101W, curving to 21N97W at the coast of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the cold front. A strong cold front, extending from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula, will exit the basin on Friday morning. Gale-force winds will continue in the Bay of Campeche overnight. A broad area of large seas in excess of 10 feet is across the western and central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building behind the front will prevail across the region through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Venezuela, into Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean beyond 07N92w. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Upper level dry air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea also. A cold front passes through the northeastern corner of Florida, to the Florida west coast near 28N83W, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the NE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 130 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 70W westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 13N northward from 70W westward most notably off the coasts of NE Honduras and E Nicaragua. A strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel overnight. The front will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Friday morning, from eastern Cuba to SE Nicaragua on Saturday morning, then stall and weaken on Sunday. Fresh northerly winds and building seas are expected across the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through southern sections of South Carolina, to the coast areas of Georgia, beyond NE Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are associated with this front. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 24N northward. A second cold front passes through 32N42W to 27N50W 26N60W 26N62W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 21N to 28N between 53W and 65W. A surface trough is along 25N50W 15N52W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 210 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 150 nm to the west of the surface trough. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 26N23W, about 480 nm to the west of Morocco. A surface trough curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, beyond 31N20W. Another part of the surface trough continues away from the low pressure center, to the southwest, to 24N24W, and to 23N31W. A dissipating cold front also curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to 25N21W 20N23W 19N32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 120 nm to 440 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The current strong cold front will move to the E of Florida overnight. Expect strong southerly winds to gale-force E of northern Florida ahead of the front. The front will extend from 31N75W to northern Cuba on Friday morning, slow and weaken from 31N66W to eastern Cuba on Saturday morning, then become stationary from 31N60W to eastern Cuba on Sunday morning. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front on Friday and Saturday. $$ mt/dm