000 AXNT20 KNHC 241029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... Strong high pressure building behind fast-moving cold front across the NW Gulf will produce a large area of NW to N gale-force winds immediately north of the front as it races southward across the entire basin today and tonight. Expect gale-force winds 30 to 45 kt, and sea heights ranging from 10 to 17 feet, NW of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNINGS... A strong cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico, will induce strong southerly winds ahead of the front as it moves east of northern Florida tonight. 30 to 35 kt S to SW winds are expected north of 29N east of the front to 75W, with sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Gale-force winds are forecast to continue in the areas IRVING and METEOR. Please read the latest forecasts, from the webpage: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1951.23 195147713.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N12W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N32W to 05N51W at the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 10W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front extends from 30N92W in Louisiana to 27N97W in southernmost Texas. The front will race southward across the entire basin during the next 24 hours. Widespread gale-force winds are expected north and northwest of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is along the frontal boundary, with isolated strong convection observed ahead of the front between 89W and 92W, north of 27N. A broad area of large seas in excess of 10 ft will build behind the front today and tonight. High pressure will prevail across the region this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 24N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic, to 14N69W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and scattered showers, are north of 16N in the Caribbean Sea, between 67W and 72W. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated showers are south of 10N, west of 76W. Isolated showers are noted elsewhere, in scattered to broken low- level clouds that are moving through the area. Strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will pulse to near gale-force early this morning near the coast of Colombia. A strong cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Friday morning, and from eastern Cuba to SE Nicaragua Saturday morning, then stall and weaken on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N50W to 24N70W, across the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba, near 23N80W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and embedded showers are within 210 nm north and 150 nm south of the frontal boundary. A surface trough is along 24N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic, to 14N69W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and embedded showers, are noted from 19N to 25N between 64W and 69W. A second surface trough is from 26N52W to 20N53W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated embedded showers are noted within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. A third surface trough is along 45W from 21N to 30N. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and isolated embedded showers are noted within 150 nm either side of the trough axis. A 1012 mb gale-force low pressure center is near 28N24W. A warm front curves away to the northeast from the low center, and a cold front extends southward from the low to 22N26W, then westward to 20N34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 26N to 31N between 18W and 25W. The stationary front will weaken and drift northward as southerly winds increase ahead of a strong cold front, that will move out of the Gulf of Mexico, east of Florida tonight. Strong southerly winds to gale-force are expected east of northern Florida as the front moves into the western Atlantic tonight. The front will extend from 31N75W to northern Cuba Friday morning, slow and weaken from 31N66W to eastern Cuba Saturday morning, then become stationary from 31N60W to eastern Cuba Sunday morning. $$ Mundell