000 AXNT20 KNHC 231709 TWDAT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 231745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will be in the Gulf of Mexico on 24/0600 UTC, along 30N92W to 26N97W. Expect northerly gale-force winds, and sea heights in excess of 10 feet, to the NW of the cold front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The same cold front will be in the Atlantic Ocean on 25/0600 UTC along 31N77W to 23N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N W of 77W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. NE Gale-force winds are forecast in the METEO-FRANCE area of IRVING, from present TO 24/0000 UTC. The outlook for the 24 hours after the initial forecast period consists of gale-force winds in the areas: IRVING and METEOR. Please read the latest forecasts, from the webpage: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2119.2 221200130462.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N30W to 05N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 00W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 15W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1031 mb high pressure center in eastern Virginia near 37N77W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico. High pressure across the basin will shift eastward today ahead of a strong cold front. The front will enter the NW Gulf early Thu, with widespread gale-force winds expected northwest of the front as it races southward across the basin through early Fri. Seas will build in excess of 10 ft behind the front on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the region and the monsoon trough, which extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia near 11N73W, is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data showed 25 to 30 kt NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Isolated trade wind showers are observed across the basin today. NE winds will pulse to near gale-force at night near the coast of Colombia through Thu morning. A strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, extend from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Fri, then stall and weaken from Haiti to Costa Rica on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes from 31N55W to 25N66W. A stationary front continues to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the fronts. A surface trough is along 62W from 24N-16N. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated showers are occurring near the trough axis. Further east, a stationary front passes through 31N24W to 27N23W to 24N28W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the front. A strong cold front will move east of Florida Thu night. Strong southerly winds to gale-force are expected ahead of the front, with winds shifting quickly to west then northwest on Fri as the front moves eastward. Seas will rapidly build in the western Atlantic as the front passes. The front will extend from 31N76W to northern Cuba early Fri, from 31N69W to eastern Cuba Fri night, and from 28N65W to the Windward Passage on Sat. $$ Formosa