000
AXNT20 KNHC 221016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N32W to  
the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between 16W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin centered near 29N91W.  
Gentle to moderate winds are over most of the basin, except for 
light to gentle east to southeast winds over the NW Gulf waters 
and light to gentle west to northwest winds over the NE Gulf 
waters. The high pressure will move northeastward toward the 
Carolinas. This will allow for generally fresh southerly return 
flow to dominate most of the Gulf waters on Wed.

Moderate to fresh northerly flow will gradually shift E to SE 
today as high pressure drifts eastward. Southerly flow returns 
into Wed before the next strong cold front enters the basin and 
brings gale-force winds into the NW and SW Gulf on Thu. Seas of 
10-12 ft will prevail in the vicinity of the front. High pressure 
will build again in the wake of the front across the basin on Fri
and continue through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends across the NW Caribbean from 22N80W
to 19N87W. No significant convection is related to the front at
this time. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most
of the basin, and fresh winds prevailing over the south-central 
Caribbean.

The front will dissipate today with easterly trades 
returning across the NW Caribbean. Highest winds and seas will 
continue to be in the southern Caribbean, near the coast of 
Colombia, pulsing at nighttime through the forecast period. The
next cold front will slide southward into the NW Caribbean by 
the end of the week enhancing winds and seas.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to
22N78W. A pre frontal trough extends from 31N65W to 27N69W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front and trough. To the
east, another frontal boundary is analyzed over the east Atlantic
from 31N28W to 27N38W. Scattered showers prevail along the front.
This boundary will dissipate within the next 24 hours. Surface 
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. 

The front over the west Atlantic will continue pushing east 
enhancing winds/seas. By the end of the week, the next cold front 
will push off the northeast Florida coast with near-gale winds 
expected across the west Atlantic and seas of 10-12 ft. High 
pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front 
through the weekend.

$$
ERA