521 AXNT20 KNHC 191031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N20W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 12W and 20W, and from 04N to 08N between 25W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge extends from Panama, through the Yucatan Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W at the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure ridge will shift eastward today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, reach from the central Gulf Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Monday, then exit the basin Tuesday. A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Panama across the Yucatan Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front reaches from central Cuba near 22N79W, across the NW part of the Caribbean Sea, to northern Belize. Isolated showers are occurring along the frontal boundary. The monsoon trough extends northeast from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia. Zonal wind flow prevails elsewhere across the basin. No significant areas of organized convection are apparent from satellite imagery. The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the area will support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Sunday. Highest winds and seas will continue to be in the southern Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N58W to 30N60W to 25N70W to the coast of central Cuba near 22N79W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N58W to 22N71W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated rain showers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas, and within 150 nm NW of the front west of the Bahamas. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N31W. A broad surface ridge anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward east of the cold front eastward. The cold front will become stationary from 24N65W to the southern Bahamas tonight, then slowly dissipate on Sunday. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast on Monday, reach the southern Bahamas and southern Cuba by Tuesday, then weaken on Wednesday. $$ Mundell