000 AXNT20 KNHC 190544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 03N20W, 04N28W, and to 02N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 05N from 20W eastward, and from 02N to 10N between 25W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge extends from Panama, through the Yucatan Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W at the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will prevail across the region through Saturday. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday evening. The cold front will reach from the central Gulf Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday; from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday; then exit from the basin on Tuesday. A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Panama, through the Yucatan Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 17N60W. The trough continues from 17N60W to 13N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 13N between 60W and 63W, and in Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. A cold front reaches the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba, from 22N to 23N between 78W and 79W. The front becomes stationary at the coast of Cuba, and it continues across the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the northern part of Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from Jamaica northward between 76W and northern Guatemala, including off the coast of the SE Yucatan Peninsula and northern coastal sections of Belize. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, southwestward, beyond the border of Colombia and Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean, beyond 07N80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in Colombia, within 90 nm to the south of the Colombia/Panama border. Isolated moderate also is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 80W westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area. The current stationary front across the NW Caribbean Sea will dissipate gradually, through Saturday. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Sunday. The highest winds and seas will be in the southern Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N57W, to 30N63W, to 26N70W, to the coast of Cuba from 22N to 23N between 78W and 79W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 140 nm to 210 nm to the SE of the cold front from 28N to 30N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 150 nm to 250 nm to the SE of the cold front from 30N to 32N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the rest of the cold front from the Bahamas northeastward; and within 150 nm to the NW of the cold front from the Bahamas to 81W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N31W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from the cold front eastward. The current cold front, that is extending from 31N61W across the Bahamas to central Cuba, will become stationary from 24N65W to the southern Bahamas on Saturday night, and then dissipate on Sunday. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast on Monday. The front will reach the southern Bahamas and southern Cuba by Tuesday, and then weaken on Wednesday. $$ mt/dm