000 AXNT20 KNHC 182201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 25W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will continue to drift east into the weekend, remaining the dominant weather feature for much of the Gulf, and keeping conditions dry. A surface trough resides along the Mexico coast in the western Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the region through Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, reach the central Gulf Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sun which could bring near-gale force northerly winds in the SW Bay of Campeche. The cold front will then reach central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula by Mon, then exit the basin Tue. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected Wed ahead of a strong cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has stalled from central Cuba to just north of the Cayman Islands to the Mexico-Belize border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend along this stationary front from the Cayman Islands to Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough extends northeast from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia. Zonal wind flow prevails across the basin. No significant areas of organized convection are apparent from satellite imagery, although a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon off the northern coast of Nicaragua. The aforementioned stationary front in the NW Caribbean will dissipate by Sat. High pressure north of the area will support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Sun. Strong trades will pulse at night north of Colombia through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba this afternoon. Over Cuba, this front has stalled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms exist along this frontal boundary. Ahead of the cold front, as surface trough extends from 28N65W into the Turks and Caicos. This trough is inducing scattered moderate convection from 26N to 30N between 62W to 66W. A broad area of high pressure centered at 1026 mb near 30N30N is dominating weather over much of the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N will continue on both sides of the cold front this evening. The cold front will move east across the basin and weaken by Sun. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast on Monday, reach the southern Bahamas and southern Cuba by Tuesday, and dissipate by Wed. $$ KONARIK