000 AXNT20 KNHC 181808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04N32W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of Africa, north of 02N to 08N between 10W and 16W. North of the ITCZ, a cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa from 09N to 16N and E of 24W, and from 02N to 08N between 23W-37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 22W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure centered over northern Tennessee near 36N84W. Anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the entire basin with no significant convection noted. A surface trough extends along the western Gulf from 24N97W to 18N94W. Area of stratus clouds extends along the southern coast of Texas and Mexico W of 94W. High pressure will prevail across the region through Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, reach the central Gulf Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sun, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Mon, then exit the basin Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes from northern Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to the northern part of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. The monsoon trough extends northeast from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia. Zonal wind flow prevails across the basin. No significant areas of organized convection are apparent from satellite imagery. A stationary front is draped south of the Yucatan Channel in the NW Caribbean. This front is expected to linger into Sat before it dissipates. High pressure north of the area will support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Sun. Strong trades will pulse at night north of Colombia through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 33N64W across the northern Bahamas and NW Cuba near 22N79W, then it transitions to a stationary front from Isla de la Juventud to 20N87W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated showers are within 60 to 120 nm on the southeast side of the frontal boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N66W to 21N71W, with isolated showers along the trough axis. A broad ridge along 30N spans most of the east-central Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 29N32W. North of the ITCZ, a cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa from 09N to 16N and E of 24W. A cold front extending from 31N69W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba will reach from 31N65W to central Cuba tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of 29N on either side of the front today. The front will continue to push eastward across the basin and weaken by Sun. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast on Monday, reaching the southern Bahamas and southern Cuba by Tuesday. $$ MTorres $$ Torres