000 AXNT20 KNHC 180509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 03N30W, and to 02N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 09W and 12W; and within 330 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, between 15W and 23W. Other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 25N80W, just off the SE coast of Florida, to the Yucatan Channel, to the northeastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the inland areas that are from the northern half of Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is in west central Mississippi, through southern coastal Louisiana, southwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The current slowly-moving cold front, that extends from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan Peninsula, will exit the basin overnight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue across the Bay of Campeche through Friday morning. High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf of by Saturday evening, and move SE across the basin through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers most of the Caribbean Sea. The southwesternmost part of an upper level trough reaches the easternmost sections of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through 25N80W, just off the SE coast of Florida, to the Yucatan Channel, to the northeastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the inland areas that are from the northern half of Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula, and from 85W westward in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 13N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, southwestward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean, beyond 07N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N southward from 72W westward to the coasts of the countries of Central America. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Sea, through Friday, before dissipating. Strong high pressure to the north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area, on Friday and Saturday, and then diminish on Sunday and Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to 25N80W off the SE coast of Florida, to the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the front from the Straits of Florida northeastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. One surface trough is along 31N52W 28N56W 24N60W. A second surface trough is from 20N to 25N between 68W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N31W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 50W eastward. The current cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds are expected N of 29N ahead of the front through Friday. The front will weaken gradually, along 24N, through Sunday. A second cold front will move east to the of Florida on Monday night. $$ mt/dm