000 AXNT20 KNHC 171725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 03N30W to the Equator along 35W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-10N between 06W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong upper level W-SW wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico and is producing a very progressive upper level pattern across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front extends from southwest FL to near 23N85W then becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A cluster of moderate thunderstorms is along the front south of 20N to just inland near Veracruz. A 1028 mb high is over eastern Texas and is driving fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front south of 22N and west of 90W, where seas are still 8-10 ft in north swell. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche in addition to moderate northerly winds in the western Gulf. Seas for the rest of the basin are 3-6 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds associated with the front will cross the Bay of Campeche through Fri morning before diminishing. High pressure will build across the Gulf Fri and Sat to produce fresh to locally strong E-SE winds across the basin. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf by Sat evening and move slowly SE through Mon, reaching the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge causing subsidence dominates the NW Caribbean and is producing very stable conditions across most of the basin. A surface trough extending south of Cuba from 14N80W to 22N82W is producing some isolated showers. Elsewhere, a cluster of isolated moderate convection is near 09N between 80W-83W, off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama City. Fresh to strong E-NE winds are located off the coast of Colombia where seas are 7-9 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are 3-6 ft. High pressure will build to the north of the area today, strengthening winds near Colombia. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean this evening through Fri before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area Fri and Sat before diminishing modestly Sun and Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 17/1500 UTC, the cold front stretches from 31N75W to the central Florida coast near 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough is located north of the Bahamas from 30N75W to just north of Cuba near 24N79W. A line of convection is located near the pre-frontal trough, N of 28N between 71W-78W. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted behind the cold front and moderate southerly winds are ahead of the front. Seas are up to 7 ft near the Florida coast. In the central Atlantic, an elongated trough is located near 30N52W to just north of Hispaniola near 20N68W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Farther east, surface ridging extends across the eastern and central Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb high near 30N28W. Light to gentle winds prevail with seas 5-8 ft. A cold front from 31N76W across central Florida will move slowly SE, reaching from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 29N through Fri. The front will gradually weaken and become E to W aligned along 24N Sun. High pressure will prevail north of the front. $$ CTM/AKR