000
AXNT20 KNHC 162332
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 16/2100 UTC, a 1009 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N85W. A cold front extends SW to the Bay of Campeche
near 19N94W. Northerly gales are behind the front offshore of 
Veracruz Mexico ending this evening. Seas are up to 9-13 ft 
behind the front west of 93W. Winds and seas are expected to 
diminish overnight and into tomorrow. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N19W to 03N33W to 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 02N-19N between 12W-26W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the SW Gulf. 

A warm front extends across north Florida from the low. Satellite
and NWS radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over
central Florida and the eastern Gulf from 25N to 30N between 82W
to 87W. High pressure is building behind the front. Fresh to 
strong winds are along the front in the eastern Gulf with fresh 
winds in the western Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft with upwards
of 9 ft in the western Gulf. 

The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central 
Bay of Campeche late this evening. Northerly gales across the 
Veracruz, Mexico waters will diminish early this evening. Winds 
and seas over the Gulf will gradually diminish through Fri as 
high pressure builds across the northern Gulf and the front sinks
SE of the basin. The next cold front will move into the 
northwest Gulf by Sat night and move slowly SE through Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the western 
Caribbean Sea west of 70W. Cyclonic wind flow is over the 
eastern Caribbean. Stable upper level atmospheric conditions
with subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Scattered showers
are, however, along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Strong winds are north of Colombia with moderate to fresh across
the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft with upwards of 8 ft
near Colombia. 

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds across the central Caribbean. High pressure will begin to 
strengthen to the north of the area tonight through Thu, which 
will freshen tradewinds across most of the basin. Winds near 
Colombia will pulse to strong each night through Sat night. A 
weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan 
Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri before dissipating.
Strong high pressure north of the front will produce fresh to 
strong NE tradewinds across much of the area through Sun. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is lingering off the NE Florida coast.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N and W of 77W. A trough
is located in the central Atlantic from 28N55W to 18N63W.
Scattered moderate convection is northeast of the trough from 25N
to 29N between 47W to 54W. Surface ridging extends across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure is located
near 30N31W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the basin
with seas 5 to 7 ft in the western Atlantic and 8 to 10 ft in the
central Atlantic. 

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, 
then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the 
central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri. Expect fresh to strong 
southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 28N this evening 
through Thu. The front will gradually weaken and become E to W 
aligned along 24N Sun morning. 

$$
Reinhart