000 AXNT20 KNHC 161103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico overnight and extends from the central Louisiana coast to the upper Mexican coast. The front will move SE today and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by this evening. As it moves across the west and central portions this morning, expected brief northerly gales behind the front offshore of Tampico, with gales then shifting to offshore of Veracruz late morning through late afternoon before ending this evening. Seas will quickly build to 8-11 ft behind the front west of 93W, and up to 12 ft across the Veracruz waters this evening. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N east of 56W to the African coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure center is offshore of the central Louisiana coast near 29N92W. A cold front extends from the low to the upper coast of Mexico near 25N97.5W. Strong N-NW winds 25 to 30 kt are filling in behind the advancing front with seas building to around 8 ft in the past couple of hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the low center and the cold front, from 25N to 30N. The current cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche this evening. Strong northerly winds will spread southward behind the front, to the W of 90W. Brief northerly gales will move across the Tampico waters at sunrise, then shift to offshore of Veracruz during much of the day. Winds and seas heights will diminish gradually Thu, as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and the front sinks to the SE of the basin Thu evening. A next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday afternoon, and move slowly SE through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, spans the Caribbean Sea, producing stable atmospheric conditions across much of the basin. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 15N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 07N/11N from 73W in N Colombia, beyond Panama. Isolated moderate convection is across the SW Caribbean offshore of Nicaragua. Weak high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, with gentle to light winds elsewhere. High pressure will begin to strengthen to the north of the area tonight through Thu, and will freshen tradewinds across most of the basin. Winds near Colombia will begin to pulse to strong each night through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of the area through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low pressure center is offshore of the Georgia coast with a weak cold front trailing S-SW to near Fort Pierce, Florida. A warm front extends eastward from the low along 32W to the central Atlantic. Strong northerly winds are across the west semicircle of the low and extend to the coast of Georgia and just into the waters offshore of Jacksonville, Florida. Isolated showers and tstorms are just south of the warm front between 67W and 75W. Deep layered low pressure across the central Atlantic has produce a surface trough from 28N57W to a 1013 mb low pressure center near 24N58W to 20N62W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail within 300 nm NW of the trough, where seas are 6-8 ft. A weak 1018 mb high is centered NW of the trough near 27N67W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 24N between 50W and 54W, and extends northeastward to beyond 31N45W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N34W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the tropical Atlantic northward to 25N and east of the surface trough. The low offshore of Georgia will lift northeastward today with the frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary and dissipating. The deep layer trough to the NE of the NE Caribbean will drift westward across the SE offshore waters and weaken by Thu morning. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri. Expect fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 28N this evening through Thu. The front will gradually weaken and become E to W aligned along 24N Sun morning. $$ Stripling