000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The forecast for Wednesday morning consists of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico along 30.5N89W 26N90W 21N96.5W 18.5N95W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico at Veracruz, from FROM 19.5N to 20.5N. The gale-force winds will last for 12 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 05N30W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in general, is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure center is at the SW coast of Louisiana near 30N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low pressure center to 29N91W in the coastal plains of Louisiana. A cold front extends to the SW of the 1010 mb low pressure center, to the Deep South of Texas. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 450 nm of the center, to the ESE, from 26N to 30N from 85W westward. The current cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Wednesday evening. Strong northerly winds will build behind the front, to the W of 90W, from tonight through Wednesday. Gale-force winds will be offshore Veracruz during much of the day on Wednesday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish gradually through Friday, as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and the front sinks to the SE of the basin. A third front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, spans the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and from 15N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 07N/11N from 73W in N Colombia, beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 78W westward to the coasts of the countries of Central America. Weak high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the Bahamas, is supporting modest winds and seas across the basin. High pressure will begin to strengthen to the north of the area, from Wednesday night through Thursday. The trade winds will strengthen across the south central sections. The wind speeds near Colombia will begin to pulse to strong, each night through Saturday night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean sea, from Thursday night through Friday, before dissipating. Strong high pressure to the north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N61W to 30N68W and 30N73W. A warm front continues from 30N73W to 30N78W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 31N80W. A cold front extends southwestward, from the low pressure center, to the Florida east coast near 29N. The front cuts across Florida, to the Florida west coast near 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N northward from 67W westward. A surface trough is along 28N56W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 24N58W. The surface continues from the low pressure center to 20N62W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N34W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from the 1013 mb low pressure center and surface trough eastward. The current weak frontal boundary extends along a 1013 mb low pressure center that is offshore the northeast Florida coast near 30.5N80W, S-SW to near Palm Beach, Florida. The low pressure center is expected to move northward tonight. The frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary and dissipating. A nearly-stationary deep layer trough that is along 57W/58W will drift westward and weaken by Thursday morning. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Wednesday night. The front will slide slowly SE, and reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba on Thursday, and then drift southeast of the area through late Saturday. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will be ahead of the front in the western Atlantic Ocean, to the N of 28N. $$ mt/ss