000 AXNT20 KNHC 160005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Developing Gale: A cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight and cross the basin Wed through Thursday. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow the front with the strongest wind increasing to gale force off Veracruz Wed morning. Gale force winds in the central and western Bay of Campeche will diminish by early Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa near 09N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins near 06N20W and continues to 03N37W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N E of 20W, and from 0N to 14N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh return flow is over the western half of the gulf ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas tonight. The front will cross the basin through Wed night into Thu morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow the front with the strongest wind increasing to gale force off Veracruz Wed morning. Gale force winds in the central and western Bay of Campeche will diminish during the early night hours. However, fresh to strong winds behind the front and building seas will diminish through Fri. A second front is forecast to move into the northwest Gulf by Sat night and reach the eastern basin by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting modest winds and seas across the basin while a middle level ridge sustain fair weather conditions. By Wed night through Thu morning, high pressure will begin to re-strengthen to the north, and tradewinds offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to strong each night through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of the area through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extending from 31N64W to 27N73W will move across the Atlantic waters near the Bahamas through Wed. By Wed night, the cold front is expected to dissipate. Meanwhile, a deep layer trough will remain nearly stationary along about 57W-58W through today before drifting westward and weaken by Thu morning. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Wed, then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Thu, then drift southeast of the area through late Sat. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will be ahead of the front in the western Atlantic N of 28N. $$ Ramos