000 AXNT20 KNHC 150507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The gales in the southwest Gulf of Mexico ended at 15/0000 UTC, Monday evening at 6 PM CST. Winds will continue to diminish over the Gulf this morning as high pressure moves over the area. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight and cross the basin by Thursday. Behind the front, brief gales are expected offshore Veracruz on Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and continues to 04N30W to 04N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-09N between 10W-23W, from 03N-06N between 24W-32W, and from 04N-08N between 34W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 26N84W. From there, a stationary front continues to 22N91W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from Naples Florida to 22N88W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N91W. Isolated showers are possible over the SE Gulf of Mexico near the front and trough. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen inland over the southern Yucatan Peninsula along the surface trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico. Fresh N winds are also noted in the NE Gulf, north of 29N and east of 88W. Mainly gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas in the Bay of Campeche and far SW Gulf are forecast to subside to about 6 ft by sunrise this morning. Winds and seas will diminish this morning as the front stalls and starts to dissipate from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight and cross the basin by Thu, and will bring brief gales offshore Veracruz Wed. Winds and seas will then diminish through Fri as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the second front. A third front will move into the northwest Gulf by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds of the Caribbean, leading to subsidence, dry air and mainly fair weather across the entire basin. Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades confined to the south-central Caribbean, south of the 15N between 70W-78W. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the eastern and NW Caribbean, while 4-6 ft seas cover the area from the central to the SW basin. High pressure north of the area will begin to re-strengthen by Wed, and trade winds offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to strong each night, and then to near gale force Fri and Sat nights. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba Thu night through Fri before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W to Sarasota Florida. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Fresh winds are noted on both sides of the front north of 28.5N. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high near 32N39W to 32N55W to 28N67W to the central Bahamas. Gentle anticyclonic winds are within 180 nm either side of the ridge axis. To the south of the ridge, a 1013 mb low is near 24N58W. Fresh winds are on the north and east sides of the low. A surface trough oriented SSW-NNE extends through the low from 19N to 27N. An upper-level trough axis is over the same area. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper trough axis is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-28N between 48W-57W. In the NE Atlantic, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N11W to 27N20W. Fresh N winds are within 120 nm NW of the front. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh trades across much of the area from 16N-27N between 50W and the coast of Africa. For the forecast, the cold front off NE Florida will sweep eastward across the waters north of 27N through Wed. Meanwhile, a deep layer trough will remain nearly stationary along 57/58W through today before drifting westward and weakening tonight through Thu. The next cold front will move into the waters east of northern Florida Wed night then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Fri morning, then drift southeast of the area through late Sat. Behind the front, expect fresh N winds across the western Atlantic. $$ Hagen