000
AXNT20 KNHC 130455
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf tonight. Behind the front, northerly gale force winds
are expected to develop over sections of the western and SW Gulf
Mon and Mon night, with strong north winds elsewhere over the
western Gulf. Seas are forecast to reach 12 ft in the SW Gulf.
Winds and seas will decrease Tue as high pressure moves over the
area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 04N35W
to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 03N-07N between 23W-31W, from 05N-09N between 31W-43W, and
from 02N-04N between 35W-39W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-05N between 12W-21W and from 05N-11N between 44W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Alabama/Mississippi border near
31N88W to 28N92W. The front is stationary from 28N92W to
Brownsville Texas to northern Mexico near 27N101W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from Pensacola Florida to 27N92W. Scattered light
to moderate showers are along and within 90 nm south and east of
the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh
E winds north of the stationary front off portions of the Texas
coast. The front will lift inland as a warm front later this
morning. Another surface trough is over the Yucatan Channel, with
isolated showers to the east of it over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure ridging stretches from the western Atlantic to
northern Florida and to the NE Gulf. Gentle wind speeds are over
the NE Gulf, north of 25N and east of 92W.

A significant cold front will move into the Gulf tonight, then
cross much of the basin Mon into Tue. Strong N winds will spill
behind the front, and gales will develop over parts of the W and
SW Gulf Mon into Mon night. Please see the Special Features
section above for details on the Gale Warning in the western
Gulf. Winds and seas will decrease Tue as high pressures builds
in. The next front will move into the western Gulf Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level ridging covers the western Caribbean and Central 
America. An upper-level trough axis extends from near 30N60W to
the eastern Caribbean Sea. At the surface, a trough is over the
Yucatan Channel, with isolated to scattered light to moderate
showers extending east of the surface trough from western Cuba
to the Cayman Islands. Isolated light trade wind showers are
over the eastern Caribbean. Dry air is over the central and SW
portion of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades
over the south-central Caribbean from 10.5N-16N between 70W-78W.
Within that area, there are strong trades near the coast of
Colombia from 11N-14N between 71W-75W. Moderate wind speeds
cover the remainder of the Caribbean.

Strong NE winds will pulse nightly into Mon along the Colombian
coast. High pressure will weaken across the western Atlc early
Mon through Wed and yield a weakened wind flow across the entire
basin. A weakening cold front is forecast to move slowly SE
across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba Thu through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area through 32N33W and extends to 
27N46W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 26N49W, 
where it then becomes a shearline to 22N62W. A recent ASCAT pass
reveals strong northeast to east winds north of the front and
shearline to 30N, between 42W-60W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 19N-28N between 49W-63W. This convection is being
enhanced by an upper-level trough axis that stretches from near
30N60W to the eastern Caribbean. A 1023 mb high is near 32N22W.

In the western Atlantic, a surface trough is just east of
northern Florida, and another surface trough extends N from the
SE Bahamas to 27N. Isolated showers are possible north of 26N and
west of 70W. West of 73W, winds speeds are moderate. Fresh E
winds are between 63W-73W. A 1033 mb high is near 36N57W.

For the forecast, the fresh E winds between 63W-73W will diminish
early this morning as the high pressure building into the area
weakens and slides east. Ahead of the next cold front, strong SW
winds will develop Mon offshore the N Florida coast. This front
will move into the NW waters Mon afternoon and stretch from
Bermuda to south-central Florida along 27.5N Tue morning before
stalling.

$$
Hagen