000 AXNT20 KNHC 120548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 10N13W, to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W, to 03N26W, 06N38W, and to 04N48W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is from 02N to 05N between 27W and 31W, and from 06N to 08N between 21W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge extends from Florida to Honduras. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from north central Florida, toward the Yucatan Peninsula, to 21N95W. High pressure, extending from the NW Atlantic Ocean across the N FL Peninsula to the N central Gulf of Mexico, will shift NE tonight, as the next cold front reaches the NW Gulf of Mexico coast. This weak front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The front will move northward, to the north of the area on Sunday. Another cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night. By Monday, this front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche, with strong N winds spreading southward behind the front. Minimal gale-force winds are expected in parts of the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday evening, across the Mexican waters from Tampico to Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from the border of Colombia and Panama, northwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula, spanning all of Central America. Upper level NW wind moves across the open waters of the Caribbean Sea, from Central America eastward, gradually becoming more westerly wind flow crossing into the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. A shear line passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N60W to 22N67W, to the northern coast of Haiti. Fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the north of the shear line between 54W and 65W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the shear line. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds, that are moving through the area. The monsoon trough is along 07N/10N from 73W in N Colombia, beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 78W westward to the coasts of the countries of Central America. Strong NE winds will pulse nightly through Monday along the Colombian coast. An old frontal boundary extends from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage tonight, and it will begin to drift N and weaken by morning. Weak high pressure will dominate the basin from Sunday through Wednesday, in order to produce below normal winds and seas. A weakening cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel on Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 24N55W. A shear line continues from 24N55W to 22N60W, to 22N67W, to the northern coast of Haiti. Fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the north of the shear line between 54W and 65W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the stationary front and shear line. Broad and weak upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 07N to 20N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 23N53W 15N55W 7N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the east of the trough, and within 180 nm to the west of the trough, from 12N to 20N. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 35N61W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north of the stationary front/shear line. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 32N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from the stationary front/shear line eastward. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to 23N65W to the Windward Passage. Very active weather will continue along and south of the front overnight, before it weakens on Saturday and drifts northward. A high pressure ridge will dominate the waters that are to the north of this front, bringing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the NE waters, from tonight through Saturday night. The ridge then will weaken considerably across the area, from Sunday through Wednesday. A cold front will move off the FL coast on Monday night. Strong SW winds will be ahead of the front, mainly N of 28N. $$ mt/ss