000 AXNT20 KNHC 110546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 06N20W, 05N30W, 04N36W, and to 03N43W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 09N between 11W and 14W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level NW wind flow covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 36N74W, through 32N78W, across northern Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N87W. The ridge continues from 27N87W to 26N96W. A surface trough is in the coastal waters of Mexico near 19N95W, northwestward beyond 26N100W in Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in water vapor imagery. High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through Friday, allowing southerly winds to increase in the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to southern Mexico early on Monday. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front, with possible gale-force winds along the western Gulf coast near the Veracruz area of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 20N68W, across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, to 16N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 250 nm to the W and NW of the front from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 20N in the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the coastal waters and inland areas of Central America, from 10N to eastern Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N to 16N between 79W and the coastline of Central America. A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 19N70W in the Dominican Republic, curving to 15N77W, and to 09N82W in Panama. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 250 nm to the NW of the cold front. A surface trough extends from 18N84W to 21N86W just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The monsoon trough is along 07N/10N from 73W in N Colombia, beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 78W westward to the coasts of the countries of Central America. A weakening stationary front, that extends from NW Hispaniola southwestward to near 15N81W, will dissipate gradually overnight. Fresh northerly winds across the Nicaragua coastal waters will diminish gradually tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N52W to 25N60W, to 20N68W, across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, to 16N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 250 nm to the east and southeast of the stationary front, from 24N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 250 nm to the W and NW of the front from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 20N in the Atlantic Ocean, and within 135 nm to the W and NW of the stationary front from 20N to 28N. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that is near 33N26W, to 29N41W, to 27N52W. toward Puerto Rico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from the cold front eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 03N northward between 37W and 57W. One surface trough is along 17N44W 10N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 25N between 39W and 50W. The current stationary front, that is extending from the central Atlantc Ocean through 23.5N60W to NW Hispaniola, will meander through Friday night. A second front will sink southward across the far NE waters, from tonight through Friday, and reach along 29N. High pressure to the north of this front will build eastward across the area through the weekend, and produce increasing NE winds. Another cold front will move to the east of northern Florida on Monday, with fresh to strong SW winds developing across the western Atlantic Ocean ahead of the front. $$ mt/ss