000 AXNT20 KNHC 102354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N24W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01S-03N between 05W-15W, and from 03N-07N between 14W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong subsidence and dry conditions are in place over the Gulf. At the surface, a 1022 mb high pressure center is located near 25N88W, with associated broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spanning the entire Gulf. Earlier ASCAT data from late Thursday morning showed moderate S return flow over the western Gulf, west of 94W and south of 28N. That ASCAT pass also indicated light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevailing elsewhere across the Gulf. As for the forecast, the high pressure in the eastern Gulf will shift eastward through Fri. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf tonight and Fri. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night, then extend from the Florida Panhandle to southern Mexico early Mon. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front with possible gales along the western Gulf coast near the coast of Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front stretches from central portions of the Dominican Republic to south of the Haitian peninsula near 17N74W. Scattered showers are possible within 120 nm either side of the front, including most of Hispaniola. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is over Panama and over the waters south of 11N between 80W-82W in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Patches of low-level clouds advecting westward, with possible isolated showers, are noted north of 15N between 62W-82W. Earlier ASCAT data from late Thursday morning showed strong N winds within 150 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, with fresh N winds covering much of the remainder of the western Caribbean, but the winds decrease to gentle in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE to E winds are in the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. As for the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate this evening. Fresh northerly winds near the coast of Nicaragua will gradually diminish into early Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N53W to 24N61W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the central part of the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm east and southeast of the front north of 21N and east of 65W. The front will become stationary and weaken tonight. A second cold front that currently extends from Bermuda to 31N70W will make its way south tonight into Fri increasing NE winds this weekend with high pressure building eastward across the forecast area. A third cold front will move east of northern Florida on Monday returning fresh to strong SW winds in the western Atlantic. Farther east, an upper-level low is near 22N46W. At the surface, a trough is from 20N47W to 12N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-26N between 39W-48W. The upper-level low is forecast to lift northward and weaken to an upper trough through Fri. Surface ridging spreads across the remainder of the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N28W. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are expected this weekend east of 60W and north of 24N as a large low pressure system moves eastward over the north Atlantic, to the north of the area. $$ Hagen