000 AXNT20 KNHC 091030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 05N22W to 06N33W to 05N44W. One surface trough is along 16N41W to 07N45W. A second surface trough is along 49W from 02N to 09N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 10W and 35W. Isolated showers embedded in multi-layered clouds are evident elsewhere from 19N southward and 56W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure 1026 mb is centered near 25N94.5W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and no significant shower activity spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the western Gulf will shift eastward through Friday. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf Thursday night through Saturday. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sunday, then extend from Mississippi to southern Mexico Sunday night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes from northern Haiti, across eastern Jamaica to 15N81W and southward to 11N83W near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Strong northerly winds are west of the front along the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate showers associated with the front are within 180 nm northwest and west of the front. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W in northern Colombia to beyond Costa Rica. Isolated convection is from 11N southward and 72W westward to the coast of Central America. The cold front will extend from Hispaniola to western Panama tonight, then stall and weaken across the western Caribbean on Thursday. Strong northerly winds are expected to continue west of the front today. Fresh NE winds will prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N57W to 20N72W in northern Haiti, and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate showers are within 90 nm either side of the frontal boundary. A surface ridge extends southwestward from 1033 mb high pressure centered near 35N28W to the Virgin Islands. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward east of the cold front. The cold front will stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Dominican Republic on Thu. High pressure will build eastward across the forecast area Thu and Fri. $$ Mundell