000 AXNT20 KNHC 081718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 32N63W to 24N70W. Gale force S-SW winds are along and within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N. Seas in the area are 12-16 ft. Gales associated with the front will end this evening as the front continues eastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes over the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ from 05N-11N between 19W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to prevail across the Gulf. As a result, there is no significant convection ongoing in the basin. Fresh north winds cover the eastern Gulf east of 88W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate north winds are in the SW Gulf with gentle winds in the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh northerly winds over the eastern half of the basin will gradually diminish tonight. Surface ridging will prevail through Thu with light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh return flow will establish over the western half of the basin Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the front. Fresh north winds extend across most of the NW Caribbean, northwest of the front. Seas are 5-8 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted in the SW Caribbean, mainly south of 11N associated with the monsoon trough. The cold front will extend from the Windward Passage to northern Costa Rica this evening with strong to near gale force N winds affecting the E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters through Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage Wed night through Fri. Otherwise, moderate trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will pulse at nighttime to fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia from Wed night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends from 32N63W to 24N70W to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm east of the front, north of 23N and east of 70W. The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force S-SW winds along and within 120 nm east of the front north of 29N. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W-NW winds are north of 27N between the front and 74W. Elsewhere from Cuba to 32N between the front and Florida, fresh northwest winds are noted. An upper level trough axis extends from 30N36W to 20N42W to 14N51W. Scattered moderate showers extend near and east of the trough axis from 11N-27N between 23W-45W. A 1033 mb high centered just south of the Azores is producing surface ridging across most of the eastern Atlantic. Strong to gale force winds in the forecast waters NE of the Bahamas associated with the cold front will shift E of 65W late this afternoon, and seas associated with the passage of the front will subside by Wed. A reinforcing cold front will extend along the waters northeast of the NW Bahamas on Fri and dissipate Fri night. A third cold front will enter the waters east of northern Florida Sat night. $$ Mora/Hagen