000 AXNT20 KNHC 081008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba coast near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within 90 nm east of the front. A surface trough trails behind the front from 30N73W to 23N80W. Gale winds are ongoing ahead of the front, N of 27N and W of 67W. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W to NW winds are noted. Seas will build to 12-16 ft by this morning, and these conditions will subside by tonight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 06N39W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. A surface trough is north of the ITCZ from 11N36W to 07N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ and near the trough north of 06N between 22W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to build across the Gulf behind the cold front located in the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. This is being anchored by a 1026 mb high near 26N97W. As a result, there is no significant convection ongoing in the basin. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted in the eastern Gulf, while gentle to moderate N winds prevail over the central and western Gulf. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging will prevail through Thu with light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh return flow will establish over the western half of the basin Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends off the central Cuban coast near 21N79W to NW Honduras near 16N86W. Behind the front, moderate N winds are noted off the coast of Cuba and moderate to fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted in the SW Caribbean associated with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are in the south- central Caribbean especially north of Colombia. Otherwise, light to gentle trades are observed across the rest of the basin with seas 3-5 ft. Moderate trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will pulse at nighttime to fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia from Wed night through Sat night. A cold front currently extending across the west Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters in the vicinity of Honduras/Nicaragua coastlines. These winds and building seas will affect the SW Caribbean through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE are expected in the Windward Passage Wed night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Gale Warning associated to the cold front stretching across the western Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts S gale-force winds ahead of the front with W to NW strong to near-gale force winds behind the front and trough. Seas are 9-11 ft near the front. In the central Atlantic, a mid-level low is centered near 21N42W with a trough at the surface from 26N46W to 18N46W. A broad area of scattered moderate convection from 06N-28N between 25W-45W. Ridging stretches across the remainder of the basin anchored by a high near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted mostly across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds in the central Atlantic. Seas range 5-10 ft in the central Atlantic. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the cold front in the western Atlantic as it traverses the northern forecast waters W of 65W through late Tue morning. Winds and seas associated with the passage of the front will subside by mid week. $$ ERA