000 AXNT20 KNHC 080509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: At 08/0300 UTC, a strong cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N70W to the Bahamas near 25N76W to the central Cuban coast near 22N79W. A trough trails behind this front from 30N74W to 24N79W. Gales are ongoing ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 67W. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W to NW winds are noted. Seas will build to 12-16 ft by Tuesday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 05N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02N55W. A trough is north of the ITCZ from 12N35W to 07N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ and near the trough from 04N-14N between 21W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to build across the Gulf behind the cold front located in the western Atlantic. This is being anchored by a 1025 mb high near 23N97W. As a result, there is no significant convection ongoing in the basin. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate N winds in the central and western Gulf. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. High pressure is building across the basin in the wake of a cold front that currently extends across the western Atlantic and west Caribbean. Fresh to strong northerly winds over the eastern half of the basin will gradually diminish through Tue morning. Surface ridging will prevail through Thu with light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh return flow will establish over the western half of the basin Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... At 08/0300 UTC, the cold front extends off the central Cuban coast near 22N80W to NW Honduras near 16N87W. Behind the front, moderate N winds are noted off the coast of Cuba and moderate to fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Showers are within 100 nm of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. Showers are noted in the SW Caribbean associated with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are in the south-central Caribbean especially north of Colombia. Otherwise, light to gentle trades are observed across the rest of the basin with seas 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia Wed night and prevail through Sat night. A cold front along the Yucatan Channel is supporting fresh to strong winds across the area. These winds and building seas will affect the NW Caribbean through Wed night and the SW Caribbean W of 75W from Tue night through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE are expected in the Windward Passage Tue night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Gales associated with a cold front stretching from the SW into Central Atlantic. At 08/0300 UTC, a strong cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N70W to the Bahamas near 25N76W to the central Cuban coast near 22N79W. A trough trails behind this front from 30N74W to 24N79W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the front, N of the Bahamas from 24N-31N between 65W- 75W. The latest scatterometer data shows S gale-force winds ahead of the front with W to NW strong to near-gale force winds behind the front and trough. Seas are 9-11 ft near the front. In the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 26N49W to 20N54W. A mid-level low is centered near 20N43W with a trough at the surface from 25N44W to 17N45W. This is leading to a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 18N-27N between 24W- 45W. Ridging stretches across the rest of the basin anchored by a high near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted mostly across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds in the central Atlantic. Seas range 5-10 ft in the central Atlantic. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the cold front in the western Atlantic as it traverses the northern forecast waters W of 65W through late Tue morning. Winds and seas associated with the passage of the front will subside by mid week. $$ AReinhart