000 AXNT20 KNHC 072200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 31N74W this afternoon, with a cold front extending SW from it through the NW Bahamas and into western Cuba. A secondary cold front is noted from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. These front will merge later this evening from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Gales have developed ahead of the primary front, mainly N of 28N. Gale conditions are expected to continue ahead of the front through Tue night, and will extend S to around 26N. Behind the front, westerly gale will develop tonight W of 73W and N of 29W and continue Tue. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft by Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... This afternoon, an initial cold front has moved SE of the area, with a secondary cold front residing from near Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 120 nm ahead of this cold front. This cold front will move SE of the basin tonight. Behind the cold front, strong NW winds are occurring over the SE Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Fresh NW winds are occurring over the NE Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead of this front from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Relatively dry air is over much of the remainder of the basin, although scattered moderate convection has developed along the monsoon trough in the far SW Carribbean, within 150 nm of the coast of Panama. Fresh winds are ongoing behind the cold front in the Yucatan Channel. A broad area of moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail. Moderate to fresh trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia Wed night and prevail through Sat night. A cold front along the Yucatan Channel is supporting fresh to strong winds behind the front. These winds and building seas will affect the NW Caribbean through Wed night and the SW Caribbean W of 75W from Tue night through Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE are expected in the Windward Passage Tue night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Gales associated with a cold front stretching from the SW into Central Atlantic. A 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 31N74W this afternoon, with a cold front extending SW from it through the NW Bahamas and into western Cuba. A secondary cold front is noted from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. These front will merge later this evening from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the primary cold front, from Bermuda through the Central Bahamas and into Central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring within 60 nm of the secondary cold front. Strong to gale force SW winds are occurring in advance of the primary front, to the W of 69W. By Tue, the merged cold front will be from near 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos into eastern Cuba. Farther east, a stalling cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N65W. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 28N58W, with a 1016 mb surface ridge centered near 24N56W. An upper level low pressure center is near 20N42W. A nearby surface trough is from 17N36W to 07N40W. The combination of this upper level feature and surface feature is leading to a broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection, from 11N to 23N between 30W to 43W. Gale force winds and building seas will prevail ahead of a cold front and develop behind of the front as it traverses the northern forecast waters W of 65W through late Tue morning. Winds and seas associated with the passage of the front will subside Wed. $$ KONARIK