000
AXNT20 KNHC 071732
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends SW
from a 1009 mb low near 29N76W to the Florida Straits to the
Yucatan Channel. A warm front extends east from the low to
29N70W. A secondary cold front extends from 32N76W to Cape
Canaveral, FL. The fronts are expected to merge later today.
Gale force winds are expected to develop early this afternoon
on both sides of the merged front over the western Atlantic, to
the northeast of the NW Bahamas. The gales will move eastward
with the front through Tuesday, remaining north of 27N. Seas
will build to 10 to 15 ft by Tuesday morning. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N40W to the coast
of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered showers are noted along and
north of the ITCZ between 20W-47W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen near the coast of Africa from 04N-09N and east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends from the NW Bahamas to the
Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula. A secondary cold front
extends from a 1011 mb low near Tampa, FL to 22N90W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the Florida Straits to western Cuba
with the leading front. Isolated showers are along the second
front near the west coast of Florida. Strong NW to N winds are
occurring behind the second front and in the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh NW winds cover the NW Gulf.

A pair of cold fronts over the SE Gulf of Mexico will merge today
and are forecast to move E of the basin tonight. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.
Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW
Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 1500 UTC a cold front is moving SE through the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over western
Cuba and the waters near the Isle of Youth. Relatively dry air is
over the eastren and central Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh trades offshore of Colombia. Fresh winds are on both
sides of the front over the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong Wed night and prevail through Friday.
The cold front over the Yucatan Channel will move ESE through Thu
morning, where it will stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua. Fresh
to strong winds behind the front will start affecting the region
this evening and will continue to affect the NW and portions of
the SW basin Tue and Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends SW from a 1009 mb low near
29N76W to the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. A warm
front extends east from the low to 29N70W. A secondary cold
front extends from 32N76W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Scattered
moderate convection is along and within 120 nm southeast of the
leading cold front including over the NW Bahamas. Scattered
showers also extend from 28N-32N between 70W-78W. Strong S-SW
winds are east of the leading cold front. The two fronts
mentioned above are forecast to merge this afternoon. By Tue,
the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and
into eastern Cuba. Gale force winds are expected to develop
early this afternoon on both sides of the merged front. See the
Special Features section above for more information on the gale
warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N54W to 27N60W to
25N67W. No significant shower activity is noted with this front.
A 1016 mb high is located near 28N64W and a 1018 mb high is near
24N60W. An upper level low in the central Atlantic is near
20N42W. A surface trough extends from 14N34W to 09N39W. Strong
NE winds are within 180 nm northwest of the surface trough.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-24N between 29W-45W.

$$
MORA/HAGEN