000 AXNT20 KNHC 071034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low is located near 25N87W with a stationary front extending eastward from the low to the SW Florida coast. A cold front also extends southward from the low to the coast of Mexico to the east of Villahermosa. This system is leading to N to NW gale force winds offshore Veracruz with seas 10 to 13 ft. These conditions will continue through early today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the U.S. East Coast today. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, gale force winds are expected to develop on both sides of the front and mainly N of 28N starting tonight. These conditions will follow the front as it moves east through Tue night. Seas will build to 10 to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the ITCZ between 28W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is along the stationary front in the eastern Gulf from 22N-26N and east of 88W. To the northeast, a 1010 mb low is centered near 29N86W, with a cold front extending from the low to 24N90W. Scattered showers are noted across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of these features. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the most of the basin. In the western Gulf, fresh to near-gale force NW winds are noted with gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin, with seas 9 to 12 ft in the SW Gulf. Both lows and fronts will merge and move east across the Atlantic waters through the forecast period. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are off the coast of Cuba, N of 21N between 83W-85W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed in the Yucatan Passage. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas range between 2 to 5 ft. Fresh trade winds will pulse to strong at night across the SW Caribbean through the forecast period. High pressure north of the area will weaken and shift east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel today, extend from eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua into late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic. A 1010 mb low is centered near 27N80W, with warm front extending from the low to 27N72W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N57W to 23N72W. A surface trough extends from 30N51W to 21N52W with scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 21N47W to 15N46W. A surface trough is analyzed from 18N38W to 13N37W. A wide area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is along and east of this trough mainly N of 10N between 33W-45W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly and SE winds are noted in the eastern and central Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, seas range from 3 to 6 ft. In the central Atlantic, seas range from 6 to 11 ft. The frontal boundary across the west Atlantic will merge with the next front that will move off the SE U.S. coast today. By Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Gale force winds are likely to develop on either sides of the front mainly N of 28N through early Wed. $$ ERA