261 AXNT20 KNHC 070513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low is located in the central Gulf near 24N89W with a stationary front extending eastward from the low to the SW Florida coast. A stationary front also extends southward from the low to the coast of Mexico to the east of Villahermosa. This system is leading to N to NW gale force winds offshore Veracruz with seas 10 to 13 ft. These conditions will continue through early Monday morning with conditions improving across the Gulf Tue and Tues night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the U.S. East Coast by Monday. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, S to SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the front N of 29N and E of 70W late Monday through Tue. By Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Westerly gales will develop behind the front over the same area Tue into Tue night. Seas will build to 10 to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N32W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 17W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is along the stationary front in the eastern Gulf from 23N-26N between 82W-90W. A cold front extends across the north-central Gulf from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 26N90W. Showers are noted across the NE Gulf from 26N- 30N between 83W-90W. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh NW winds are noted. Moderate to fresh winds are also on either side of the stationary front in the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, fresh to near-gale force NW winds are noted with gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin, with seas 9 to 12 ft in the SW Gulf. The low in the central Gulf will move quickly NE and out of the NE Gulf late tonight, dragging a reinforcing cold front through the eastern Gulf. This cold front will exit the SE Gulf by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered thunderstorms are off the coast of Cuba, N of 21N between 81W-85W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed in the Yucatan Passage in addition to moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia and Venezuela. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 5 ft. Fresh trade winds may pulse to locally strong off Colombia tonight, then diminish quickly as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua into late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning ahead of a cold front on Tuesday. At 07/0300 UTC, a warm front extends off the coast of Florida and north of the Bahamas from 27N80W to 26N73W. Scattered showers are noted near the front. Light to gentle southerly winds are south of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends southward across the central Atlantic from 31N56W to north of the Windward Passage near 21N73W. A trough is analyzed east of the front from 31N53W to 24N50W. No significant convection is associated with this trough. To the south, another trough lingers across the central Atlantic from 20N46W to 12N46W. A wide area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of this trough from 11N to 28N between 32W to 46W. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly and SE winds are noted in the eastern and central Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, seas range from 3 to 6 ft. In the central Atlantic, seas range from 6 to 11 ft. The warm front will weaken overnight and continue to lift northward, as a second cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Mon. By Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Ahead of the front, gale force S winds are likely to develop N of 29N and E of 70W from Mon night through Tue. Westerly gales will develop behind the front over the same area Tue into Tue night. $$ AReinhart