000 AXNT20 KNHC 062258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A developing low pressure system located over the SW Gulf near 22N93W will move quickly NE and out of the NE Gulf late tonight, dragging a reinforcing cold front through the eastern Gulf. This cold front will exit the SE Gulf by Mon afternoon. The most recent scatterometer pass shows near gale force winds to the SW of the low center. Winds will further increase to gale force offshore Veracruz tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8-12 ft will dominate most of the SW Gulf tonight into Mon morning. Then, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf waters Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the front late Monday through Tue. The front will reach from 31N71W to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and from 31N68W to central Cuba on Mon night. By Tue, the front will extend from near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. These gale-force winds will affect mainly the waters N of 28N and within about 120 nm ahead of the front. Seas are expected to build to 14-17 ft on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 07N between 20W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1800 UTC, a 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW Gulf near 22N93W. A cold front extends from the low center to the central Bay of Campeche. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details about this low center and the Gale Warning that is already in effect for the SW Gulf waters. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida across the waters N of the Yucatan Peninsula to the aforementioned low pressure located in the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in association with the frontal boundary. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers, dominates most of the Gulf while thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The stationary front will drift northward and dissipate as cold air, in the wake of the front, spreads over the Gulf region. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the Caribbean Sea, with some convective activity over the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba due to the proximity of a stationary front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Little change is expected in this weather pattern tonight. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua into late week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front over the western Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras Mon night and Tue, with seas building to 6-7 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N61W to the northern Bahamas, then continues as a stationary front across the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers are noted along the front over the Atlantic while convection is on increase across the Straits of Florida and south Florida. This front will weaken overnight and begin to lift northward, ahead of a second cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon. By Tue, this cold front will stretch from near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Ahead of the front, gale force SW winds are expected. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Farther E, a weak low pressure is near 25N52W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is related to the low. High pressure of 1032 mb located just W of the Azores extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trades are seen per scatterometer data along the southern periphery of the ridge. A good amount of cloudiness with some shower and thunderstorm activity remains over the central Atlantic ahead of an upper- level trough. This convective activity is covering the waters from 14N-23N between 40W-45W. $$ GR