974 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N93W, with surface trough extending from 27N93W to the low to 19N92W. Winds are expected to increase as the low pressure deepens today. Gale force winds will develop by Sun evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas may reach as high as 12 ft. Winds and seas are expected to diminish through Mon as low rapidly lifts out to the east, and high pressure builds over the Gulf waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, N of 29N between 65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft. These gale-force winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 21W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-13N between 30W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to 22N89W to the western Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-25N between 82W-88W. A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N93W, with surface trough extending from 27N93W to the low to 19N92W. Isolated moderate convection is from 22N-27N between 90W-95W. The Gulf of Mexico low will move rapidly NE and exit the NE Gulf early Mon, dragging a reinforcing cold front through the eastern Gulf. This front will exit the Gulf Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish Tue and Wed as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Caribbean with occasional strong trades pulsing north of Colombia. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the central Caribbean. Fresh trade winds will pulse off Colombia through tonight, then diminish as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue, and stall from Haiti to northeast Nicaragua into late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to the N Bahamas near 26N78W. A stationary front continues to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Isolated moderate convection is E of the front N of 25N between 55W-63W. A 1015 mb low is centered near 26N52W. A surface trough extends from 20N47W to 13N49W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from 15N-24N between 41W-47W. A 1034 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N32W. The W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken into tonight. The front will then lift north Mon as a warm front, ahead of a second cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon night. By Tue, this cold front will stretch from Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. Ahead of the front, gale force southerly winds are possible N of 28N and E of 65W from late Mon night through Tue. $$ Formosa