000 AXNT20 KNHC 061040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N95W, with surface trough extending from 27N96W to the low to 18N93W. These features are ahead of a mid/upper low moving into the southern Plains. Winds are expected to increase in that area as the low pressure deepens through Sun. Gale force winds will develop by Sun evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas may reach as high as 12 ft in that region. Winds and seas are expect to diminish through Mon as low rapidly lifts out to the east, and high pressure builds over the Gulf waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, N of 29N between 65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft. These gale- force winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along and north of the ITCZ from 02N to 10N between 27W to 37W. A surface trough extends north of the ITCZ from 11N48W to 07N48W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters. A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N95W, with surface trough extending from 27N96W to the low to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with the low center. A stationary front stretches from the southwest Florida coast near 26N81W to the northwest Yucatan near 21N90W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm of the front north of the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the central and NW Gulf. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. The stationary front and the low/trough in the Bay of Campeche will support strong to near gale force winds over the far western Gulf through Sun, briefly reaching gale force tonight off Veracruz. The low pressure will move rapidly toward the Carolina coast Sun through Mon, dragging a reinforcing front across the eastern Gulf Mon into Tue. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the cold front shifts southeast of the area and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the northwest Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Caribbean with occasional strong trades pulsing north of Colombia,mainly at nighttime. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the central Caribbean. Fresh trade winds will pulse off Colombia today, then diminish as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from western Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue, and stall from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N67W to 26N72W to the coast of South Florida near 26N80W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted behind the front, while moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front N of 25N between 63W to 71W. To the east, a surface trough is noted ahead of the front from 28N67W to 20N72W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough from 25N to 31W between 57W to 66W. A 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 26N52W, with surface trough extending from 31N52W to the low to 21N50W. Another trough is noted south of these features from 20N49W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 16N-27N between 43W and 47W. Surface ridge prevails across the east Atlantic, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas range 3 to 6 ft in the western Atlantic and 5 to 10 ft in the central Atlantic. The west Atlantic cold front will start to stall and weaken from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by today. The front will lift northward through tonight ahead of a stronger cold moving off the northeast Florida coast through early Mon. This front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Tue, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage through mid week. Winds to gale force are possible ahead of the front N of 29N and E of 65W Mon night into Tue. $$ ERA