211 AXNT20 KNHC 060558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface trough stretches off the South Texas coast to near Ciudad del Carmen in the southern Bay of Campeche. A 1013 mb low is along the trough near 22N95W, ahead of a mid/upper low moving into the southern Plains.Winds are expected to increase in that area as the low pressure deepens through Sun. Gale force winds will develop by Sun evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas may reach as high as 13 ft in that region. Winds and seas are expect to diminish through Mon as low rapidly lifts out to the east, and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, N of 29N between 65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 15 ft. These gale- force winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N21W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and north of the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 16W to 38W. A trough extends north of the ITCZ from 11N46W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate convection is near and east of the trough from 06N to 15N between 36W to 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 06/0300 UTC, A stationary front stretches from the southwest Florida coast near 26N81W to the northwest Yucatan near 21N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm of the front north of the Yucatan and the Yucatan Passage. The trough in the western Gulf of Mexico stretches from 28N96W to 18N93W. A 1013 mb low is near 22N96W. Thunderstorms are near the trough and across portions of the western Gulf from 21N to 27N between 91W to 97W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the central and NW Gulf. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. The stationary front and the low/trough in the Bay of Campeche will support strong to near gale force winds over the far western Gulf through Sun, briefly reaching gale force late Sun off Veracruz. The low pressure will move rapidly toward the Carolina coast Sun through Mon, dragging a reinforcing front across the eastern Gulf Mon into Tue. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the cold front shifts southeast of the area and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the northwest Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Caribbean with occasional strong trades pulsing north of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the central Caribbean. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia through Sun, then diminish as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from western Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue, and stall from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 03/0600 UTC, a cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to 27N75W to the coast of South Florida near 26N80W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted behind the front with moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front, N of 26N between 63W to 71W. A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead of the front from 29N70W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front from 25N to 31W between 56W to 68W. A trough is in the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 21N50W with a 1016 mb low near 26N52W. Another trough is farther south, analyzed from 20N48W to 13N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of these troughs from 16N to 28N between 42W to 50W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas range 3 to 6 ft in the western Atlantic and 5 to 10 ft in the central Atlantic. The cold front will start to stall and weaken from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Sun. The front will lift northward through late Sun ahead of a stronger cold moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Tue, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage through mid week. Winds to gale force are possible ahead of the front N of 30N and E of 70W Mon night into Tue. $$ AKR