000 AXNT20 KNHC 051753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Dec 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 07N30W to 09N38W to 05N45W. Another segment of the ITCZ is from 04N48W to 00N51W. A surface trough is from 10N43W to 05N47W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-13N between 25W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 05/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Sebastian Florida to Sanibel Florida to the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is also over the Bay of Campeche from 24N95W to 20N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Further N, scattered showers are are noted on radar over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 24N and W of 92W. A 1026 mb high is centered over central Texas near Austin producing surface ridging over the NW Gulf. The front will move slowly across the eastern Gulf through tonight and stall over the southeast and south central Gulf through early Sun. Low pressure will form along the front over the western Gulf by tonight and move across the basin through Mon night. This pattern will support near gale force NW to N winds over the western Gulf Sun, and drag a reinforcing front across the eastern Gulf Mon. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the merged cold fronts shift southeast of the area and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W to 19N87W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 16N and W of 82W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of E Panama near 09N77W. Elsewhere, radar shows scattered showers over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Winds across the central Caribbean will diminish today as high pressure weakens north of the area. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from western Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue, and stall from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to Sebastian Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm E of the front to include most of the Bahamas. A 1018 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 28N59W. Further E, a surface trough extends from 31N52W to 24N50W to 15N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-31N between 46W-52W. A 1036 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N32W producing surface ridging over the E Atlantic. The W Atlantic cold front will start to stall and weaken from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Sun. The front will lift northward through late Sun ahead of a stronger cold moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Tue, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage through mid week. $$ Formosa