000
AXNT20 KNHC 051030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N21W to 
08N32W to 06N40W. Another segment of the ITCZ is along 05N46W to
05N53W. A surface trough is along 09N40W to 01N47W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04n to 14N
between 28W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through northern Florida to 25N85W to 23N90W,
then becomes stationary from 23N90W to 18N93W. Isolated showers
are along the frontal boundary. A surface ridge is building into 
the Gulf of Mexico, west of the front. 

The front will move slowly across the eastern Gulf through
tonight. A stronger cold front will move across the basin 
tonight through Monday night. Near gale- force NW to N winds are 
expected west of the front in the western Gulf on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Gulf of Honduras along the coast
of Belize to the extreme NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely
scattered showers cover the NW Caribbean, NW of a line from 20N77W
to 15N83W. The monsoon trough is along 09N from 73W in northern 
Colombia to beyond Costa Rica.

The winds across the central Caribbean will diminish today as 
high pressure weakens north of the area. A cold front in the Gulf
of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel on Monday, extend from 
Cuba to Honduras on Tuesday, then move into the SW Caribbean on 
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure, 1018 mb, is centered near 28.5N 57.5W. A
surface trough extends SE from the low to 22N50W to 12N47W, and a
second surface trough, the remnant of a stationary front, extends
west-southwest from the low to near 21.5N74W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either side of a line
from 19N42W to 30N51W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, 
and isolated showers, are within 180 nm to the west and northwest
of the old frontal boundary analyzed as a surface trough.

A strong ridge of high pressure south of a 1035 mb high centered 
near 40N34W prevails across the eastern Atlantic, north of 22N
between 17W and 45W. 

A cold front currently across northern Florida will extend from 
31N74W to central Florida later today, then weaken from 29N65W to 
the central Bahamas on Sunday. Strong S to SW winds, north of 29N
ahead of the front, will diminish later today. A developing low 
pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico will sweep a strong cold 
front, accompanied by strong gusty winds, across the western 
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. 

$$
Mundell