000 AXNT20 KNHC 050552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 07N20W, 08N30W, to 06N40W. Another segment of the ITCZ is along 05N45W 06N54W. A surface trough is along 08N40W 05N43W 01N45W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 10N to 12N between 29W and 37w. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 04N to 14N between 20W and 40W. Scattered strong is from 03N to 08N between 38W and 46W, near the 08N40W 01N45W surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to 100 nm to the NW of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes stationary to the NW of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it continues to the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the southeast of the line that runs from Bradenton in Florida to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge has been building into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west and northwest of the frontal boundary. The ridge passes through Texas, to just to the southwest of Tampico in Mexico. The current cold front will move slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through Saturday night. A stronger cold front will move across the basin, from early Sunday through Monday night. Near gale-force NW to N winds are expected to the west of the front in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW Caribbean Sea from the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula to NW Cuba. A surface trough extends from the NW sections of Honduras to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely scattered strong covers the area that is from 20N to NW Cuba between 80W and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W in N Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward to the coast of the countries of Central America. The wind speeds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish on Saturday. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Monday. The front will extend from Cuba to Honduras on Tuesday, and move into the SW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 31N58W, to 28N60W, to 22N70W, beyond SE Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 135 nm to the east and southeast of the cold fron; and within 180 nm to the west and northwest of the cold front. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough curves toward the southeast, away from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 29N57W, to 11N27W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 670 nm to the east of the surface trough, from 18N northward. A dissipating stationary front extends from the 1018 mb 29N57W low pressure center, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to the northwest of the dissipating stationary front. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 17N northward, between the surface trough and the dissipating stationary front. A weakening stationary front from 24N65W to E Cuba will dissipate overnight. Strong S to SW winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight. A cold front will extend from 31N74W to central Florida on Sat, then weaken from 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Sun. A developing low pressure system will sweep a strong cold front, accompanied by strong gusty winds, across the western Atlantic Mon and Tue. $$ mt/dm